Środowiskowe Seminarium Fizyki Atmosfery
sala B0.14, ul. Pasteura 5
2017-03-10 (13:15) 
dr Dariusz Baranowski, IGF UW (-Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science & Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles, California, USA, -Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California, USA)
Multi-scale interactions over the Maritime Continent: effects on propagation of atmospheric convection and model fidelity
Modern management of extreme weather events depends on forecasts reliable for extended time periods. Much of the predictability of global weather patterns lays within the intraseasonal variability of the tropical circulation, in particular the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The Maritime Continent is arguably the most important region in weather and climate system, in terms of forcing global atmospheric variability on sub-seasonal to decadal time scales. However, the multi-scale interactions of the atmosphere, ocean and land surfaces in the MC are sparsely observed, poorly understood and badly represented in models.In this presentation I will show examples of two-way interactions between eastward propagating convection (MJO and convectively coupled Kelvin waves) and vivid diurnal cycle of convection over the Maritime Continent. Implications of these multi-scale interactions for both propagating and stationary modes of convection will also be addressed.I will also talk about fidelity of modern General Circulation Models in representation of the key components of the diurnal cycle of convection over the Maritime Continent region and its intraseasonal variability. Models performance with respect to the metrics of the diurnal cycle, such as daily mean precipitation, amplitude and phase of the diurnal cycle of precipitation, will be validated with satellite observations from TRMM mission.