Konwersatorium im. J.Pniewskiego i L.Infelda
sala 0.03, ul. Pasteura 5
2021-01-25 (16:30) 
Prof. dr Tomasz Lipniacki (Instytut Podstawowych Problemów Techniki PAN)
SARS CoV 2 super-spreaders and super-spreading Variant of Concern 202012/01
The basic reproduction number R0 of the coronavirus disease 2019 has been estimated to range between 2 and 4. We used an SEIR model that properly accounts for the distribution of the latent period and, based on empirical estimates of the doubling time in the near-exponential phases of epidemic progression in China, Italy, Spain, France, UK, Germany, Switzerland and New York State, we estimated that R0 lies in the range 4.7–11.4. We explained this discrepancy by performing stochastic simulations of model dynamics in a population with a small proportion of super-spreaders.
The novel SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern (VOC)-202012/01 (also known as B.1.1.7), first collected on September 20, 2020, in Kent, UK, is a rapidly growing lineage. Based on GISAID we estimated that the replicative advantage of the VOC-202012/01 lineage is in the range of 1.85–2.17 with respect to the 20A.EU1 variant (dominating in England in November 2020) and in the range of 1.99–2.36 with respect to other non-VOC-202012/01 strains. Such significant replicative advantage and the fact that London serves as major international transportation hub suggest that the VOC-202012/01 strain will likely become globally dominant, hindering containment of the COVID-19 epidemics prior to mass vaccinations.
The novel SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern (VOC)-202012/01 (also known as B.1.1.7), first collected on September 20, 2020, in Kent, UK, is a rapidly growing lineage. Based on GISAID we estimated that the replicative advantage of the VOC-202012/01 lineage is in the range of 1.85–2.17 with respect to the 20A.EU1 variant (dominating in England in November 2020) and in the range of 1.99–2.36 with respect to other non-VOC-202012/01 strains. Such significant replicative advantage and the fact that London serves as major international transportation hub suggest that the VOC-202012/01 strain will likely become globally dominant, hindering containment of the COVID-19 epidemics prior to mass vaccinations.
https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.200786
https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.12.28.20248906
The colloquium will take place via ZOOM. For the parameters, see the October 26, 2020 lecture.
